post-debate thought

Just one, indicative, post-debate assessment:

As he did for the first presidential debate, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg gathered a group of undecided voters in a swing state (this time Colorado) to watch the town hall, polling them before and after to gauge how their reactions to the presidential candidates changed. The audience of 50 voters was slightly more female (58%), mostly middle-aged, dominated by former Bush voters, and split evenly along partisan lines…

…Even more dramatic was the shift in the voters’ personal reactions to the two candidates. Before the debate, McCain had a 48/46 favorability rating; that improved to 56/36 by the end. But that’s about where Obama started the evening—54/36. After an hour and a half, Obama’s favorability numbers were 80/14. As Joe Biden would say, let me repeat that: 80% of the undecided voters had favorable views of Obama and only 14% saw him negatively for a net rating of +66. Not even Bill Clinton got such a warm response in town hall formats.

Obama also improved his standing on several key attributes. Only 38% of voters thought he “has what it takes to be president” before the debate but by the end he had convinced more than half the room (56%). One of McCain’s goals for the evening was to convince viewers that Obama was a liberal who would raise their taxes and hike spending, but the number of voters who thought Obama was “too liberal” actually decreased throughout the evening. That could be because Obama used tougher foreign policy rhetoric than Americans are used to hearing from Democratic nominees. But he also got an assist from McCain, whose efforts to make him seem risky instead often position him as more hawkish than McCain. If viewers come away from the debate thinking Obama will do more to go after bin Laden and al Qaeda than McCain would, that’s probably a plus for Democrats. And it makes it harder for the “liberal” charge to stick.

As for McCain, the debate didn’t seem to change voters’ perceptions, for good or for bad.

To pick up on yesterday’s note, below: it’s over. The remaining uncertainty is now about whether Obama takes all the Kerry states plus 2-3 others (e.g. Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire), or whether he takes all the Kerry states plus 6-7 others and this turns into a 1980-style blow out.

I’m knocking on wood when as I write this, but short of assassination or a 9/11-magnitude disruptive event that cuts against the Democrats, Obama is the next president