Lies, damn lies and statistics (latest in a series)

With the caveat that polls this early are like 1st quarter scores in basketball—not very predictive—this is still encouraging

12 points up in Pennsylvania? If we’re looking at that kind of margin in ~4 months we’ll have to stop thinking of it as a swing state.

Other possible ramification: Since Obama and his team supposedly have no use for Hillary and everything that comes with her, her only shot at the VP position is if he fails to unify Democrats over the next several weeks. I would think that her only route to the VP slot is if her supporters don’t come over and the calculus becomes that he only gets the remaining X% of the party by putting her on the ticket. I’ve been wondering if this didn’t explain part of her ‘run to the very end’ strategy over the last month of her campaign.

I’m guessing that the segmentation detail in the polls linked above suggest that the number of Hillary hold outs in these states is small and declining. I would think if Obama becomes stronger in these head-to-head matchups during the coming weeks the odds of Hillary joining the ticket becomes vanishingly small.